The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Wednesday Market Update -- Riks, JGBs, & Some Other Material

FOMC Minutes out at 2pm EDT today. New moon 7:47pm EDT.

A Deputy Governor of Sweden's Riksbank just said, "Riksbank will do what it takes to boost inflation."

"It" is loose monetary policy.

As deflation creeps into every nook and cranny, expect to hear more of this. None of it will work.

Here's why. Possibly the most important chart I've seen yet, from @Not_Jim_Cramer:

Source: @Not_Jim_Cramer

Think Greece is a problem?

ES Futures:
Double top overnight thus far but seeming to find support into the pre-market.

2s-30s prices slipping perilously close to their respective December 24th lows. Sticking with the 10-year (because that's where the volume is each and every night of late), if 125'21 breaks, especially if the JGB follows with it, markets around the world are going to have a wee problem.

Putin? Greece? Earnings? All of it runs on easy money.

Crude looks like it is building a series of flat tops and rising bottoms. Usually these resolve to the upside. NG suddenly seems a bit unsure of itself.

Gold continues to disappoint gold bugs. Gold stocks, however, continue to hold up well.

S&P Outlook:
This scenario from late December is still on. But with the S&P now breaking out in a wave 3, it should be showing more strength internally.


Yesterday the S&P closed at an all-time record high with inverted A/Ds -- more decliners than advancers. That is not wave 3 material. And if it's not wave 3 material it could become some other material rather quickly.

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