The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Tuesday Market Update -- Absurd Edition

News:
From ABSURD to WHATEVER IT TAKES to NO COMPROMISE in under 36 hours. No wonder they're broke.

The Eurogroup is no better: it's either extend and pretend, or nothing.

ES Futures:
Got slapped hard on the failure to reach an agreement in Europe, but only fell in three waves, thus corrective. Recovered as expected and another weak high should be forthcoming.

FX:
Euro trading as if another lower low is on tap.

Bonds:
Showing little regard for rally. With the US dollar still firm, higher rates seem to be being priced in regardless of what the Fed says, does, or hints.

Energy:
Crude retains a rising wedge structure, but appears to be reconsidering a Fib extension to 58.

Metals:
Gold down well over 1%. Here too the market seems to be saying higher rates, firmer dollar, we want in on that and out of gold.

S&P Outlook:
With the three-wave decline in futures overnight, a weak new high may occur today in the S&P cash, but would likely be an opportunity to sell.

Also, there is a 61.8% Fib extension target just above at 2098.43 that the market may be waiting to test.

There is a new moon tomorrow evening which could keep prices up, perhaps, but could also cause a pronounced trend change. This new moon is unique in that it's a Supermoon and a seasonal Black Moon, one of only three all year. Being a Supermoon means it is at perigee, which means it is closer to us than normal, which means more influence than normal.

Lest one think this is absurd, consider that if the moon influences the tides of the ocean twice a day and influences them even more so during a Supermoon, it will likely affect us, too.

It's that simple. At least something to be aware of.


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