The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, March 16, 2015

Manic Monday

ES Futures:
Ripping higher after no flush on Friday.

News & Commentary:
Bloomberg is reporting that Germany wants Greece out of the euro. About time. I see this as euro bullish. The DAX is screaming higher -- as one would expect.

Poor Yanis Varoufakis. He got schooled by Paris Match over the weekend, and showed himself as incredibly naive by consenting to a lifestyle photo shoot by the shrewd French who knew exactly what they were doing.

And it worked. The Greeks are furious. As they should be.



http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Economie/Avant-la-bataille-Yanis-Varoufakis-725030

The Fed begins a two-day meeting tomorrow. Much hand wringing over the word patient. If they take it out now, they can add it later. It's a "communication tool."

Don't base your trading plan on an institution's word.

FX:
I don't see the end of the dollar rally just yet, near term or long term.

Treasuries:
The messy rollover antics seem to have spread to 2s and 5s. 10s still trying to rally. That's what I'm watching.

Energy:
Crude's action requires me to dust off the multi-year Fibonacci target at 37.33.

Metals:
Waiting for gold patiently. Lower. Below 1130.

S&P Outlook:
With futures on a manic tear this morning after whistling past the graveyard on Friday it could be set up for an even bigger one.

Such an out-of-nowhere rally is the behavior of a "b" wave, however, as they are notoriously difficult to trade. So I will be monitoring the usual suspects such as Ticks, A/Ds, and volume for clues.

2067 area feels like a target, as does a possible run to the 2079.43 gap without exceeding 2083.49.

If the Fed meeting coincides with a flush, I still see it holding above 1980.90. Multiple targets exist.



2 comments:

  1. Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I am reading your blog everyday. Love it!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Very kind of you to say. Thank you!

    ReplyDelete