The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Wednesday -- Wage Inflation, Turtle Soup, Reboot

ES Futures:
Firmer thus far on the heels of a solid European session, but looking corrective .

News:
The 2nd biggest spike in wages on record just occurred in the latest Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey. If there is one thing that the Fed fears more than deflation, it's wage inflation, last seen in 1999-2000 and 2007.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank has noted an ominous new trend . . ."the surprisingly sharp drop off in global trade in early 2014 that followed weakening into year-end 2014 . . . over and above the decline in oil." Notice there was zero bump from cheaper oil. Cheaper oil is a symptom of a slowing global economy.

Greece is no laughing matter when its total debt exposure to European banks is close to €350 billion and its exit (or default) could set off a daisy chain of other countries seeking (or forced) to do the same.

FX:
Strong USD crosses once again. Keep hearing "the dollar is over" and "the market loves a strong dollar." Well, the dollar ripped yesterday and markets freaked. Continue to feel USD strength is due in part to anticipating higher rates, as well as the beneficiary of currency debasement abroad.

USDJPY has broken out, and may be gunning for 124.130, the June 2007 swing point.

Treasuries:
I know it's rollover, but treasuries still look exceedingly weird.

Energy:
As WTI crude has corrected from its recent highs, it has not yet done so on higher volume. NG's decline appears corrective at the moment.

Metals:
Down again slightly thus morning.

S&P Outlook:.
Turtle Soup was correct. It just took an extra day to kick in. I guess that was the seasonal effect. Yesterday's fierce decline into the 50dma was textbook.

Last week's candle ended with an ominous last kiss of the trend line that it was having trouble holding.


Therefore, while it is possible that wave 5 was completed, once again the internal sub-waves are already a bit suspect. The simplest way for me to proceed is to watch 2067.93. A hard break of that after a low volume bounce today could get me to embrace this scenario a little more. Otherwise, I'll add SPY calls against UVXY.


Social Mood:
As noted in The Socionomic Implications Of September Vogue: 2014, the Big Reboot is still on its way.

Vanity Fair's latest cover.





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