The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, May 16, 2016

Monday -- The Wooden Skyscraper, Warren Says Yahoo, Eats Apple

S&P E-mini Futures:
Reversed an overnight decline.

Skyscraper, or match stick?

A wooden skyscraper puts a new twist on the Skyscraper Indicator developed by cycles analyst Edward Dewey (1895-1978), who was the chief economics analyst for the US Department of Commerce in the 1940s. Dewey felt that the number (and height) of skyscrapers correlated with human optimism.

"When people are very optimistic, they tend to express their feelings in massive construction projects, especially very tall buildings. Since this extreme optimism is reached at major market peaks, in the economy, severe economic downturns usually follow; not just declines in real estate prices."

In my opinion, a wooden skyscraper in London, the scene of the Great Fire Of 1666, is a dangerous omen of an approaching financial flame out.

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett, who famously side-stepped the late-90s "dot com" bubble, has finally become comfortable enough with the interweb thing to sanction a $1 billion investment in Apple, and has joined a consortium that is bidding for Yahoo's core internet assets.

Again, a potentially dangerous message of a trend ready to reverse.

In short, socionomics is sending some strong clues lately, yet mixed mood is still dominant. Volatility seems to be the suggested outcome.

Risk-On tone today.

These are starting to send warning signs that dovetail with the socionomic warnings above.

WTI crude ripping higher. NG mirror image opposite.

All over the place today. Up, down & all around.

S&P Outlook:
Feeling the same as last Friday. Would only add that the S&P 500 needs to crest 2070.78 in order for the scenario to occur.

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