The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Tuesday -- CPI & Gold, Valuations According To Goldman

S&P E-mini Futures:
Rallied overnight, then gave it up.

CPI came in hot, but gold is basically flat.

More conflicting stuff to chew on as we trade range bound for a second year.

"Middle-class Americans have fled the market because they simply don’t have the money."

Maybe they've got a point -- especially when you contrast it with this take on valuations from Goldman Sachs:

"At 16.7x the forward P/E multiple of the S&P 500 index ranks in the 86th percentile relative to the last 40 years. The median stock in the index trades at the 99th percentile of historical valuation on most metrics."

Slightly mixed in Asia (China was down a bit), and more mixed in Europe thus far.

Turning mixed here as well. AUD higher but CAD lower. CHF and JPY showing possible safe haven flows (though JPY is hugging the flat line currently). USD hanging tough.

Trying to redeem some upside luster.

WTI crude hit a new rally high overnight then reversed in what may be a small five-wave structure. NG continues to look like it's forming a bullish rising wedge, as noted last Friday.

Gold and silver up very modestly considering today's hot CPI number, but platinum, palladium, and copper are down.

S&P Outlook:
If things are proceeding to plan, the market should be in a C-wave up to the 2085-2100 level. Today should be a wave 2 correction.

Friday is option expiration. So weakness is not unexpected before positive bias takes over. However, below 2050 would raise significant doubt that the current scenario is correct.

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