The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Wednesday -- Fed Minutes, Sanders On Puerto Rico, Scenarios

S&P E-mini Futures:
Bears blew a chance overnight to crush the bulls as key levels held.

News:
Today is Fed Minutes Day. That means tic, tic, tic... until 2pm.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders was just in Puerto Rico, doing what he does best.


Sanders also called for the US to bailout Greece during its debt crisis.

Not a fan of bailouts. Period.

FX:
Largely Risk Off with USD strength and AUD/CAD weakness. But JPY and CHF weaker too.

Treasuries:
Thus far, in a word, terrible.

Energy:
WTI crude pushing yet more rally highs as volume seems to evaporate. NG probing lower.

Metals:
Messy today.

S&P Outlook:
Remember this?


And remember this?


I'm looking for a surprise fake-out rally to B possibly on unexpected dovish Fed minutes amid the current more bearish expectations. Then want puts there for another probe lower.

At C, I want to be long if things still line up the way these scenarios suggest.

The above requires price above 2063.41 without new lows. Otherwise a falling wedge may be forming -- others may see a head & shoulders pattern -- with a price objective in the 1975 area. Valid Fib levels could run to 1925.06.

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