The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, June 3, 2016

Friday -- NFP Big Mess

S&P E-mini Futures:
Everything looked great until the NFP number. Then...

NFP May Jobs Report -- what a mess.

CNBC -- "This is crazy."

CNBC -- "I'm still looking for a digit."

38,000 new jobs in May vs expectations by MarketWatch of 155,000 nonfarm jobs.

MarketWatch -- "The unemployment rate fell to 4.7% from 5% to the lowest level since the month before the Great Recession began in December 2007."

MarketWatch --  "Average hourly wages climbed 0.2% to $25.59. Hourly pay rose 2.5% from May 2015 to May 2016."

No jobs, lower unemployment, and wage gains. A total mess for the Fed.

Maybe that's why the markets are treating the news as a total mess as well. Which means equities aren't joining the party.

Maybe this data has something to do with it. Ned Davis Research put out an interesting chart (if you think the market is running on fairy tales).

Source: Ned Davis Research
Davis used price-to-sales to illustrate valuation (and sentiment) because price-to-earnings ratios have been so distorted by the Fed, resulting in extensive buybacks.

Davis found that today's S&P is priced at a fairy tale, record high price-to-sales ratio of 2.22, nearly 2.5 standard deviations from the median, which means over a 98% chance of trending back toward median, and less than a 2% chance of continuing materially higher.

By materially higher, I mean the big breakout that seems to be creeping into the narrative.

As well as this gem that appeared Thursday on Wall Street Bets: 

"Gentlemen, you've just seen the S&P 500 under 2,100 for the last time in your life."

AUD & CAD much stronger. JPY stronger. EUR stronger.

Prices ripping and yields cratering.

WTI crude down on NFP news. NG coming off its highs too.

Higher across the board post-NFP.

S&P Outlook:
Futures went down on the same news that sent most other Fed-sensitive markets into celebration mode.

Have long said the day will come when news of accommodation would eventually cause the equity markets to tank. The day is young, but perhaps that day has come.

As messy as futures look, they still haven't come close to breaking their 2083.25 swing point from 2 days ago. This equates to the 2085.10 swing point on the cash S&P.

This means a bullish rising wedge is still possible. If so, one more marginal high could eke out, but would look best if 2111.05 was not exceeded.

Looking for SPY 210 calls today, or possibly OEX 930 calls below $1.00.

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