The collision of global markets and social mood

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Home

20 days. 16 states. 7259 miles.

No accidents. No mishaps. No tickets.

It was an amazing experience that I was fortunate to have. And in myriad ways, the journey really is the reward. Perhaps because the journey never ends. The memories, the lessons, the moments . . . these live on forever.

And for that, I am ever grateful.


Home by Iggy Pop on Grooveshark

Ontario and Quebec

With an early start from Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, I made my way through Canadian Customs where it's a miracle that I was allowed into the country with my vehicle as packed to the gills as it was, looking like I was ready to move in. It was a long haul through hours and hours of countryside, over roads that alternated from good to not so good, sometimes moving right along, sometimes not.

By the end of the day -- and I do mean the end of the day . . . like around 8pm or so, I finally made my way into Ottawa, Ontario for the first time. I headed straight downtown to the Parliament Hill area to view the picturesque Government buildings that give the city its decidedly British appearance. But as I explored the nearby neighborhoods such as Bank Street and the Preston Street area, I discovered just how quickly the city shows its eclectic ethnic mix. These lively areas were filled with an endless array of Indian, Thai, Vietnamese, Chinese, Italian restaurants along with crowds of people enjoying the warm summer evening.

Still weary and a bit jangled from the road though, I dove into a British pub that looked particularly inviting and eased my aches with a few pints of good ale and possibly the most comforting dish there is: Shepherd's Pie. I was so glad I did.

On reflection, and with no offense intended, it seems that job #1 for Ontario should be to improve the quality of its roads. I do believe after we all suffer the inevitable repercussions of a global debt liquidation, Canada will rightly assume a much greater presence on the world stage, possibly at the expense of America. Perhaps a longer term view would allow for preparations to begin now.

As for the drive through the greater Montreal area on my way back into the States, much had changed since I'd last seen it a decade ago. The commercial real estate buildings lining both sides of route 40 all seemed brand new, looking shiny and sleek. And everywhere, everywhere I saw the words "A Louer." To let...for lease. Lot's of capacity, few takers. The theme continues.

Friday, July 16, 2010

The S&P Rolls Over

I woke up this morning fully prepared to see the futures up big and to cover my short. Instead things were quiet to slightly negative. I decided to give it another day. I'm glad I did. The sell off was on appreciably higher volume than the previous up days. That's what I was waiting to see: which side had more conviction.

Michigan: Upper Peninsula


Visited the Painted Rocks National Seashore today.

Spectacular. I spent hours there.

(Sorry for the camera flare. I'm shooting most of these with video and then grabbing the frames for jpeg.)

Wisconsin: A Beautiful End To A Dangerous Day


This beautiful park on the shores of Lake Superior was my reward for a long journey dodging killer hail storms from North Dakota through upper Minnesota and Wisconsin. The park is in Ashland, Wisconsin, a cute little town where I found everything I needed to recharge. I particularly recommend a little slice of downtown known as the "granola triangle" that I found the next morning. Located just off the main drag on Chapple Avenue, you'll find the Black Cat Coffeehouse, the Ashland Baking Company, and the Chequamegon Food Cooperative to start your day off right.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Minnesota: Protected By A Legend


Paul Bunyan may be a legend here in Akeley, Minnesota, but softball-sized hail can be a reality. In something of a miracle, my car missed the killer hail overnight in North Dakota, and I was fortunate to avoid it all day long through Minnesota. Maybe ol' Paul here was catching them before they fell on my car.

Could South Dakota Be Home To The Best Burger Ever?


On route 83 North, just a few short miles before you cross into North Dakota, in a tiny town called Selby, there is a drive-in where I found the most honest, freshest, most delicately prepared and presented cheeseburger I've ever had. It was more than a quick bite on the road. It was a thing of beauty. It was perfection. All for $2.75.

Feeling The Market From The Road

Being apart from the financial markets while on the road becomes an interesting meditation. It's been 14 trading days so far, and while I wouldn't want to day trade this way, I feel reasonably comfortable with smaller swing trades with stops.

As far as the meditation part goes, even if you're only able to catch an update or two during the day, you can still feel the battle between the bulls and the bears. Some days you swear you can feel the candlestick forming.

Today, for instance, I felt good in the morning when I heard on the radio that the S&P was only up fractionally. I was short. Then I heard it was down 11 and felt much better. But when I heard the closing number, up just over 1 point, I could "feel" the hanging man forming. I don't feel good about the short anymore. There is a gap at 1106 (also the .786 retracement of the last leg). Even though this market is up on light volume and a lot of hope, I'm betting it will be filled. I may also make that area my new stop, just in case the bulls want to have some summer fun and roll around in the grass.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

The Good, The Bad, and The Devil?



It's been a busy few days, but it's been so rewarding. Most of it has been away from mobile and web access to boot. So maybe that's why it's been so great. Maybe I just needed a break from the screens. I'll just try to catch up here.

Seeing Mt. Rushmore for real was incredible. Pictures just don't do it justice. I spent a night in Custer, South Dakota, and had some Elk for the first time. Very flavorful and distinctive, yet deliciously steak-like as well.

Also saw the towns of Deadwood and Sturgis -- Sturgis being surprisingly Harley-free (or visitor-free) outside of Bike Week.




Only one word describes the Badlands.

Badass.

Seriously, you have to see it to believe it. Enough said.




And Devil's Tower, for me, needs a new name. It's an awe inspiring formation. It's great how you can see it from so far away as you're bombing up route 24, and as you get closer, the tension just builds. It feels more like a power spot to me than its name suggests.

According to legend, there were seven young maidens who went out to play. Several bears saw them and began to give chase. To escape from the bears, the maidens climbed to the top of a rock and prayed to the spirit of the rock for safety.

Hearing the pleas of the maidens, the rock began to rise from the ground towards the Heavens so that the bears could not reach them. After reaching the sky, the seven maidens were transformed into the constellation of the Pleiades.

I really like that story. Much better than just "Devil's Tower."

I also like where we're at with the S&P. We've come up here on no volume and today filled an open gap. It feels like a good risk/reward area to try a swing short with a stop just above the June highs.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Montana to Wyoming


This was the most congested part of the trip so far. The area around Yellowstone National Park was well trafficked -- especially on a sunny summer Saturday. I bypassed the park, leaving it for another time, and headed to Jackson Hole. Passing the Grand Tetons was magnificent. As was the omnipresence of a rushing river at nearly every turn. One of my favorite views.

Jackson Hole was mobbed as well. I braved the crowds long enough to explore the town, then dropped into the Million Dollar Cowboy Bar, and left as soon as it appeared the bartender was on break. Driving out of Jackson Hole there was a three-mile backup of cars waiting to get in. Not sure if they're big spenders or just people waiting to buy t-shirts.

But yet again, here was a high-end town with a lot of real estate on offer.

I continue to see a lot of inventory wherever I go, mostly newer homes and office space, and many, many office buildings of the "see through" variety. Completely vacant.

But the river doesn't know, and doesn't care. It just keeps on flowing. I guess I should too.

Friday, July 9, 2010

Montana: Driver's Paradise

I think Montana should be renamed the Driver’s Paradise.

The reason for my elation is that today I drove route 200 from Missoula to route 141 to Avon. It was simply the best run I’ve ever had – including the Autobahn.

Long sweeping corners that never seemed to end drifted effortlessly into the next. Perfectly graded, perfectly paved roads snaked through shallow hills and valleys. A generous 70 MPH speed limit (which basically means “keep it under 80, son”) kept the velocity “interesting” through scenery that was so dramatic that my heart couldn’t help but soar -- big blue sky, puffy white clouds, soft green rolling hills sprinkled with pines, sculpted and formed as if by the hand of the God.

I could not help daydreaming about doing the drive in McQueen’s 250 GT Lusso with all 12 cylinders howling in symphony. I’ll leave you with this photo of her, quite possibly the most beautiful car ever made.


Road Trip -- Day 11: Montana


I blew off Banff, British Columbia to give myself more time in Montana. And last night in Missoula made me glad I did.

I pulled in late, with a big steak on my mind as my first meal. The nice lady at the front desk told me that I might have to settle for McDonald's. I would not be denied. Maybe it wouldn't be a steak, but I was determined to find something good and authentic.

As if on auto pilot, I felt guided past bar after crowded bar, doors crowded with late night partiers spilling onto the sidewalks, past red neon sign after red neon sign until I caught a glimpse of the Missoula Club. Burgers and Beer.

Bingo.

Missoula being a university town, it was packed with a young, rowdy crowd of hats (crowds of guys wearing baseball caps) and chicks. But just as in Seattle, miraculously there was a free bar stool waiting for me.

I had a couple ice cold Rainier beers, an absolutely amazing burger, and a great time. The beef tasted like beef. The beer was beer. The people were lively and friendly. Only a couple times did I feel tested by a hat who would visit my personal space, possibly looking for a rise out of me. But maybe it's a counter balance to the wide-open spaces out here. People seem to be more kinesthetic -- they seem to want to be closer. There was a lot of body contact which was a bit unsettling at first. Of course it was more fun with the females. They were friendly and delightful. Yet being a stranger in a local bar in a rowdy town, I was a good boy.

I walked around a little more and did a Bourdain -- street food. I came upon a spotless taco truck, and had a couple amazing late-night beef tacos.

***Note to would be street vendors: the word "catering" has instant appeal and gives a virtual 3rd party endorsement to whatever food you're dishing out. Make sure it's prominently displayed, as was done on this truck. It worked.

I'm going to take my time in Montana. I will visit beautiful Banff some other time, and will take my time there too.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Road Trip -- Day 10: Seattle


Freeze frame from video at Ray's Boathouse.


Seattle is great example of lemonade. I got handed a few lemons while I was there. I got into town at rush hour and had to sit in an enormous traffic jam -- so I turned on my laptop and wireless card and caught up on the markets (not recommended -- worse than texting while driving!).

I've always wanted to see the chaos of the Pike Place Market, but it was closed. I headed over for some oysters at Emmett Watson's Oyster Bar, but if truth be told, I tried 4 varieties of them and didn't like any. I did find them to be the cleanest I've ever seen, expertly prepared, and loved the setting in which I ate them, but I guess it's a palate thing. I found myself missing the tangy, briny taste of my favorite oysters of the Northeast (Edgartown, MA is home to my favorite). My sincere apologies to any Washington residents I may be offending!

I headed over to Ray's Boathouse which was swarming with people. The parking lot was filled with valets (not a chance with all the laptops and electronic equipment in my car). The side streets were packed with cars. And suddenly, I noticed a car pulling out of a parking space right in front of the restaurant! I went inside and it was crowded beyond belief. But miraculously the hostess found me a table that was free for a split second.

That's lemonade. Only I didn't make it. I feel as though it was made for me, and served to me, and was ever thankful.

I washed it down with an ice cold sauvignon blanc and started in with seared ahi tuna and followed up with Alaskan sea scallops in a Thai curry sauce. Amazing. My thanks to the Kerrigans in Arizona for the suggestion.

I'd love to see the S&P cash to get to around 1080 on anemic volume.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Road Trip -- Day 9: Pacific Ocean


It finally happened. I hit the coast. What a welcome sight. From Gold Beach to the Haystack at Pacific City (all 235 feet of it), I took in some of the most incredible coastline I've ever seen -- all in a single day. And the smell of the salt air after such a long time! Priceless.

I love that the drama of the Oregon coast is in the water, whereas say on the coast of Maine, the drama is for the most part along the coastline itself. The rock formations along the Oregon coast are the most stunning I've ever seen. The scale of the cliffs against the sea is the most dramatic I've ever seen. I could go on and on. And I did. Holding out until seeing the Pacific City area at almost 8pm and finally saying "this is where I want to be tonight." I had a great cask-conditioned ale at the Pelican Pub in front of the Haystack, then checked into my room and had a big ol' fish fry for dinner at a local pub. Just what I was looking forward to.

And again, the S&P has not hit its lows yet. Be patient.

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Again, most embarrassing market call ever. I won't ever delete it because I want to remember how incredibly lame it was.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Road Trip -- Day 8: Bear Camp Road, Oregon


Never again


I've driven my share of backroads over the years. I grew up in northern New England where many of my favorites are little more than old carriage paths. I've driven all throughout the Alps. I've driven coast to coast 7 times and am currently in the middle of my 8th trip, and each time I seek backroads whenever I can. But I have yet to meet a backroad like Bear Camp Road in Oregon.

Turns out it's rather notorious. I can see why. It's a twisty one-lane road 60 miles long that traverses the Klamath Mountains. Several deaths have occurred by motorists using it, as I did, as a short cut to or from the coast to I-5. Some of the searches have lasted for weeks. It is deep wilderness. There are numerous side roads that confuse you at every turn. Rock slides are common. It often changes to gravel without warning. It also changes from two lanes to one lane without warning, sometimes lulling you into thinking you've got enough room just when you meet a raft guide going the other way towing a trailer full of river rafts. There are no guard rails to save you from going over the edge to your death should you lose concentration for one moment.

It took me 3 hours to get from Grants Pass to Gold Beach. It was a full mental and physical workout. I was exhausted. Furthermore, I wouldn't ever do it again.

Other notes:
Loved Bend so much I stayed an extra day. Then headed south to Mt. Shasta, California, then back up into Oregon on my way to the coast. Spent a lovely couple of hours in Ashland. What a pretty town. Lithia Park downtown is a gem. I also drank from Lithia Spring which was like a salty Perrier. Didn't see any road construction on my brief foray into California -- could this be because of its fiscal distress? I paid the highest fuel prices of the trip due to their high excise taxes.

Watching CNBC right now and noting the rally. We have not seen the lows yet.

###

I never go back and change stupid things I've said about the market, but I do add comments occasionally. This market call has to be the worst one ever and the most embarrassing. It's what I get from lazily checking charts on the web instead of my trading platform.  Another thing I'll never do again.

Sunday, July 4, 2010

Road Trip -- Day 5: Bend, Oregon


I love this place. There’s no tourist board to speak of. You rarely ever hear of the place. And yet it’s a thriving spot in the middle of Oregon’s high desert. Kind, friendly, real people live and enjoy life here. I did not hear one beeping horn, one negative word, one bit of anger or impatience while I was here.

According to Money magazine, Bend was the fifth most overpriced real estate market in America in June 2006. By September 2006, it was ranked second, and in June 2007 it was named the most overpriced housing market in America.

I must admit I saw no evidence of this. I did not see an abundance of commercial or residential real estate for sale. The downtown area was thriving. Restaurants were busy. Overall, it feels as though lifestyle is the key draw here. And lifestyle seems to be winning.

I took a day off from driving and relaxed. I sat in the sun. Took a long walk by the Deschutes River. Caught up on emails and the markets. I may open a small call position as a hedge should the S&P cash test 1000.

Road Trip -- Day 4: Sun Valley


The view from my hotel room.


As Lao Tzu said of the Tao, words cannot describe the incredible beauty of Sun Valley. The country surrounding this special place must be seen. It’s easy to understand why Averell Harriman invested heavily to develop the area years ago. It feels like a one-of-a-kind spot on the earth.

Right away, you know you’re entering someplace different when you pass the nearby airport and see the Gulfstreams lined up. SUVs sport license plates from all over the country. High-end restaurants abound. Galleries are everywhere.

It’s not until later that you notice how much retail space is available. Some of the galleries are using the word “Sale." There is no construction. More than a few condos are listed for $2.5 and up. Ranches for multiples more, and there are many offered. The line cook at the local burger ‘n’ beer joint flips out at a customer for not starting out with a tip . . .“I’m broke too, dude!” While several bistros have employees standing by who look bored.

I felt drawn elsewhere. I found the Pioneer Saloon and had a fabulous dinner there. It was crowded with well-heeled people eating and drinking and enjoying a warm summer evening. I did not have to tip first to get good service. Mark the bartender was a real pro who made me feel at home. As did the waitresses in their jean skirts and cowboy boots. Even Barbie was there. Barbara McQueen. Steve’s widow. I never would’ve known if Mark hadn’t casually mentioned it with a twinkle in his eye as she was leaving. “I thought you’d like that,” he said.

The next day I headed north on 75 through more beautiful country and came to the small town of Stanley. No galleries. No condos. No bistros. Only one crowded gas station/convenience mart. A couple of restaurants. And a bunch of new buildings being built.

It’s a simple theme not confined by geography, as true in China as the middle of nowhere. Real growth is sustained in the absence of overcapacity.

Side note: because I consider Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises to be one of the finest novels ever written, another purpose of my visit was to pay my respects to him. I like that his posthumous role is very low key in Ketchum/Sun Valley. I was able to visit his grave in the Ketchum cemetery -- ironically on the anniversary of his death -- and be there totally alone. Unlike the circus-like nonsense surrounding Jim Morrison’s grave in Père-Lachaise, I was extremely thankful for the peace and quiet, and I suspect Hem is too.